This topic comes up often on Facebook and in general. Eagle Mountain currently contracts with the Utah County Sheriff’s Office for police support and traffic enforcement. Every couple of years there is a push for Eagle Mountain to create a city police force and usually an increase in crime is used as one of the reasons. But is crime really on the rise in Eagle Mountain? The population of Eagle Mountain is growing fast, but are crime rates increasing with it?
Before we can get into this subject, we need to look at a couple of things first. The first is the difficulty of actually collecting Crime Statistics. There is what is referred to as the dark figure of crime. This dark figure of crime is not reflected in official crime statistics. These are the crimes that are mislabeled, not detected, or not reported to the police or that the police do not officially report. Another obstacle is the fact the Criminal Justice System is broken into so many different Jurisdictions, and each Jurisdiction has its definition of what a specific crime is. Cities, Counties, States, and Federal agencies may define a different infraction differently.
Another difficulty is that crime statistics can be easily manipulated by social or political agendas or events. For example, in 2019 there was a large spike in prostitution offenses reported in Utah County. 22 cases were reported in 2019 compared to the 3 that in 2018, and then the number dropped to 1 in 2020. Some people would look at this data and say that there was a huge increase in prostitution in 2019. But if you look into the cause of the numbers you will find that there was a major prostitution sting in Utah County in 2019. During February and November of 2019, the UCSO and Operation Underground Railroad did a sting and there were an additional 18 people who responded to their sting operation to an ad to meet with what they thought was a prostitute. That means that only 2 cases in 2019 were organic, the rest of the cases were created due to the sting operation.
The next thing you need to consider is population. As the population grows, and people move into an area, crime will increase. There will always be an increase in the number of crimes committed in an area as the population grows. But does that mean that the crime rate has increased? No, that does not mean there is an increase in the crime rate. You need to look at the number of incidents per 1000 members of the population. If that number of crimes per 1000 residents drops, then crime is actually decreasing, not increasing.
Now, let us look at the numbers. Because Eagle Mountain does contract with the Utah County Sheriff’s Office (UCSO), it is difficult to get numbers just for Eagle Mountain. Therefore I have taken Utah County as a whole to see if Crime has increased or decreased in Utah County. It should be noted that there are some areas in Utah county that are not included in the statistics because they are not serviced by UCSO. These statistics will not hold up to any scientific research, but they give you a good idea of how crime actually is trending in Eagle Mountain.
Population Growth
Below is a chart that illustrates the population growth of Utah County and Eagle Mountian from 2002-2022. I did not include 2023 in this chart because 2023 data is not available yet, the latest verified numbers I could get for 2023 were only up to October 2023. Utah County over the last 10 years had an average population growth of 2.91% with a high of 5.73%. Eagle Mountain over the last 10 years had an average population growth of 12.62%, with a high of 30.04%.
Now let us look at what percentage of the total Utah County population belongs to Eagle Mountain. The number or percentage of Eagle Mountain Residents in relation to the total number of Utah County residents has constantly increased over the last 10 years. Over the past 10 years, Eagle Mountain has grown from being only 1.68% of the total population of Utah County to 7.26% of the total population.
Crime Statistics
Given the population information listed above, as well as the information given on the difficulty of collecting accurate crime statistics The following is a chart of the number of crimes reported to the FBI Crime Statistics database by the UCSO from 2002-2022. These are crimes that fit into the following categories. This first chart of crimes only includes Homicide, Rape, Robbery, and Aggravated Assault.
Adjusting the number of incidents per capita based on the percentage of Utah County residents that reside in Eagle Mountain you get the following Per Capita Crime Rate in Eagle Mountain for violent crimes over the last 10 years.
The following graph shows the crime rates per capita based on the percentage of Utah County residents that reside in Eagle Mountain for Property Crimes. Property crimes include arson, burglary, larceny-theft, as well as motor vehicle theft.
Crime Demographics
It is also interesting to look at the demographics of who are the victims of crimes as well as who are the most common perpetrators of those crimes, as well as the types of crimes. The following graphics are created by crime statistics reported in 2002-2022 to the FBI from the UCSO. These statistics are for the entire 10-year period and for all the Utah County area that is covered by the UCSO.
Data Sources
- https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend
- https://www.neilsberg.com/insights/utah-county-ut-population-by-year/
- https://www.neilsberg.com/insights/eagle-mountain-ut-population-by-year/
Mike Kieffer is an IT geek by hobby and trade, with a BS in Information Systems & Technology. He is a proud father of 10, a grandpa, an author, a journalist, and internet publisher. His motto is to “Elevate, Inspire and Inform”, and he is politically conservative and a Christian. Mike has a passion for technology, writing, and helping others. With a wealth of experience, he is committed to sharing his knowledge with others to help them reach their full potential. He is known for his jackassery or his form of self-expression that encourages boldness, creativity, and risk-taking. It can be a way to push the boundaries and challenge traditional norms, leading to creative solutions and positive change.